What’s in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA)?

Explore the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and its impact on the economy, tax policy, government spending, and deficits. Discover how the OBBBA's tax cuts, spending changes, and debt ceiling adjustments could influence growth, inflation, and the labor market. Understand the potential effects on corporate profits, social programs, and investment strategies. Stay informed on the latest fiscal policy shifts and market reactions.

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What is a stablecoin?

Uncover the significance of stablecoins in today's financial landscape, offering stability and efficiency in decentralized transactions. Explore the GENIUS Act's role in shaping regulatory frameworks, stablecoins' applications in cross-border payments and blockchain marketplaces, and their impact on U.S. government debt and global finance.

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How can investors capitalize on shifting consumer spending patterns?

Discover how shifting consumer spending patterns are shaping investment opportunities in 2025, with insights into resilient retail sectors and emerging trends like simple luxuries. Learn how high-income consumer behavior and economic factors like inflation are influencing the U.S. economic outlook and stock selection strategies.

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What does a higher-for-longer interest rate policy mean for real estate?

Discover how a higher-for-longer interest rate policy impacts real estate investments, from market repricing to supply shocks and asset quality dispersion. Learn why selectivity in asset ownership is crucial in today's evolving economic landscape.

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Why is the Federal Reserve confident it can keep rates on hold?

Explore the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the Federal Funds Rate at 4.25%-4.50% during the June FOMC meeting. Understand the economic outlook, inflation, unemployment projections and the implications for investors amidst trade negotiations and fiscal stimulus uncertainties.

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Is now the time for U.S. investors to go global in fixed income?

Explore the advantages of global fixed income for U.S. investors, including hedging premiums and diversification benefits. Learn how Japanese government bonds and other global markets can offer higher yields when hedged back to U.S. dollars. Discover the structural features of global markets and the importance of active management in today's economic environment.

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Who is buying U.S. equities?

Explore the driving forces behind the U.S. equities rally, including retail investors and corporate buybacks, as the S&P 500 overcomes volatility. Understand market valuation, earnings growth and economic uncertainty in the context of tariffs and Federal Reserve policies.

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Can emerging markets equities outshine developed markets in 2025?

Explore the potential of emerging market equities in 2025 as they outperform developed markets, driven by solid fundamentals, easing trade tensions and technological innovation. Discover insights on portfolio diversification, currency valuation and the impact of AI adoption on investment strategies.

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How are businesses adopting AI?

Discover how businesses are leveraging AI to enhance operational efficiency and drive innovation. Explore the latest advancements from tech giants like Microsoft and Google and learn how sectors such as financial services are integrating AI for compliance, risk management and client service.

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How can value stocks help “policy-proof” portfolios?

Discover how value stocks can "policy-proof" portfolios amidst market volatility and policy changes. Explore insights on tariffs, reindustrialization and deregulation, and learn how diversified equity exposure strengthens portfolios in dynamic market conditions. Ideal for investors seeking strategies to navigate economic uncertainties and capitalize on market opportunities.

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What are the implications of Moody’s downgrade of the United States?

Explore the implications of Moody's recent downgrade of the United States credit rating from Aaa to Aa1. Understand how this shift impacts market volatility, fiscal policy and investor strategies. Discover key takeaways for global diversification and insights into the U.S.'s fiscal challenges. Stay informed with expert analysis on the evolving financial landscape and its effects on investment opportunities.

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What's driving global currency movements?

Against a backdrop of shifting tariffs and the rewriting of trade relationships, global currencies have been in flux. Entering 2024 at a two-year high, the U.S. dollar index has since surrendered over 7% of its value against a basket of major currencies.

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How could the U.S.-China trade negotiations shake out?

Explore the latest developments in U.S.-China trade negotiations, including temporary tariff reductions and their impact on global markets. Understand key issues such as trade deficits, fentanyl tariffs and strategic product considerations that could shape future economic policies and international relations.

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Is private credit’s resilience about to be tested?

Explore the resilience of private credit as it faces potential economic challenges. Discover how this $1.6 trillion asset class has grown, the risks it faces today and the strategies investors can use to navigate higher interest rates, tariffs and economic uncertainty.

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Why didn’t the Federal Reserve cut interest rates at its May meeting?

Explore the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates at its May meeting, despite economic uncertainties and tariff impacts. Understand the implications for future policy adjustments and how investors can navigate the current financial landscape.

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Can international equities help diversify portfolios from U.S. policy uncertainty?

Explore how recent U.S. policy changes are reshaping global investment strategies. Discover the role of international equities as key diversifiers amid economic uncertainty and learn about the shifting dynamics in global equity returns, currency movements and market expectations in 2025.

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What do U.S. chip export controls mean for investors?

Explore the implications of the U.S. AI Diffusion Rule on semiconductor investments, as new export controls reshape global chip supply chains, impact tech stocks and challenge geopolitical dynamics.

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What happened during the past U.S. tariff experiments?

Explore the history of U.S. tariff policies and their economic impacts in this insightful blog by Mary Park Durham. From the McKinley tariffs of 1890 to the Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930, discover how past tariff experiments shaped industries, consumer prices, and trade relations.

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How can investors quickly diversify during market volatility?

Explore strategies for investors to diversify portfolios during market volatility with liquid alternatives, risk management and tactical asset allocation for capital preservation and potential gains.

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Why are U.S. Treasury yields rising?

Discover the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields influenced by Federal Reserve policy and inflationary trade war effects. Learn about the market dynamics and investment opportunities amidst these changes.

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How have other countries responded to the tariff turmoil?

Explore how global markets and countries are responding to recent U.S. tariff announcements, with insights into China's retaliatory measures, the European Union's strategic delays, and Southeast Asia's conciliatory approaches.

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How vulnerable is mega-cap tech to tariff turmoil?

Explore the vulnerabilities of mega-cap tech stocks amid rising tariff tensions and global supply chain disruptions. Discover how trade wars and economic shifts are impacting market dynamics, investor strategies, and the future of AI-driven innovation in 2025.

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What are the impacts of the April 2nd tariff announcements?

Discover the effects of President Trump's new tariffs on global trade and investment strategies. Learn about potential economic impacts and how to navigate trade turmoil with diversification and active management.

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The quarter in review: what happened in 1Q 2025?

Discover the key market dynamics of 1Q 2025, including tariff uncertainty, trade policies, and economic projections, and their impact on U.S. and international markets, commodities, and investor sentiment.

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Industrials: boom or bust?

Explore the industrial sector's outlook post-election, exploring reshoring, energy and M&A impacts, with insights on key opportunities and challenges for investors.

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What does a C grade on U.S. infrastructure mean for investors?

Discover investment opportunities from the ASCE's 2025 Report Card, which rates U.S. infrastructure a C grade. Learn how infrastructure investments offer stability, inflation protection and potential in public-private partnerships and energy transitions.

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Is the Federal Reserve (Fed) concerned about policy uncertainty in Washington?

Explore the Federal Reserve's March 2025 policy decisions, economic outlook, and investment strategies amidst rising uncertainty and stagflation risks.

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Tariff turmoil or trade truce?

Explore the potential market scenarios in 2025 with Meera Pandit's insightful analysis on tariff turmoil, trade truces, tax cuts, tech tumbles, and inflation spikes. Discover how these scenarios could impact equities, yields, and your investment portfolio. Learn about the importance of diversification and alternative investments in navigating volatile markets.

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How can alternatives like infrastructure enhance diversification during volatility?

Traditional investment wisdom holds that when stocks zig, bonds zag, creating natural portfolio diversification. However, when inflation becomes the focus of investors and central banks, this relationship can break down.

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What’s driving Eurozone equity returns this year?

Discover the driving forces behind the impressive 15.1% rise in Eurozone equities in 2025. Explore how fiscal policies, structural changes and key sectors like Defense and Aerospace and Banks are fueling growth. Learn about the impact of geopolitical events, government spending and market dynamics on Eurozone's economic outlook. Stay informed with expert insights and analysis on the sustainability of this market rally.

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What do investors need to know from the February Jobs report?

Explore the February Jobs Report with insights into payroll growth, sector performance, unemployment trends, and wage dynamics. Understand the implications for investors and the Federal Reserve amidst economic uncertainties. Ideal for institutional clients and qualified investors seeking a comprehensive analysis of current labor market conditions.

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What are the investment implications of higher tariffs?

Explore the investment implications of recent tariff increases amidst trade turmoil. Discover strategies for navigating economic uncertainty, including asset diversification, quality risk exposure, and active management. Learn how tariffs impact growth, inflation and key industries, and gain insights into effective investing amidst policy changes.

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Is the AI Capex Boom signaling “buy” or “diversify”?

Explore the AI Capex Boom as leading U.S. tech companies invest heavily in AI infrastructure, driving economic growth and productivity. Discover the implications for investors and the global economy, and learn how to navigate the evolving AI landscape with a diversified approach.

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Will small cap earnings lead the pack?

Explore the potential of small cap earnings in 2025 with Meera Pandit's insightful analysis. Discover why small cap stocks, despite an estimated 39% earnings growth, may face significant revisions and challenges. Learn about historical trends, economic factors, and investment strategies that could impact small, mid, and large cap equities.

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Is the strong performance in European equities sustainable?

Explore the sustainability of European equities' strong performance in 2025. Gabriela Santos analyzes the factors driving market gains, including cyclical recovery and structural changes, while highlighting potential risks like U.S. tariffs. Discover insights into global equity valuations and the future of international markets.

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Which countries would be most impacted by reciprocal tariffs?

Explore the potential impacts of President Trump's "Fair and Reciprocal Plan" on global trade, focusing on how reciprocal tariffs could affect the European Union and emerging markets. Understand the complexities of non-tariff barriers and the economic implications for investors and industries. Stay informed with insights on international trade dynamics and market vulnerabilities.

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Does the January CPI report signal a shift in inflation?

Explore the January CPI report's impact on inflation trends and the Fed's stance on interest rates. Discover insights into core inflation, energy prices, labor market dynamics and tariff effects. Understand how these factors influence inflation expectations and the Fed's cautious approach amid potential trade wars. Stay informed on economic indicators and their implications for future monetary policy.

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Can harvesting “tax savings” turn volatility into opportunity?

Discover how savvy investors can turn market volatility into opportunity with active tax management. Learn strategies to harvest tax savings and generate alpha in 2025's unpredictable market landscape.

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How did tariffs and taxes impact profits and performance in 2018?

Robust profit growth expectations and lofty S&P 500 price targets suggest investors are optimistic about 2025. However, there is deep uncertainty around how tariffs and tax reform may unfold, but 2018 can offer clues as to how these policies could impact profits, corporate activity, and market performance.

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How might China respond to escalating trade tensions with the U.S.?

After a stimulus-fueled rally in 3Q24, Chinese equities have recently stumbled, declining 3.2% since the U.S. election. Domestically, challenges like policy uncertainty and real estate sluggishness persist, while externally, new risks are emerging.

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Why did the Federal Reserve hold rates steady in its first meeting of the year?

Washington has been a hub of excitement for investors in recent weeks. However, the January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting provided a welcome change of pace with few surprises.

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DeepSeek or Swim: Has the AI thesis fundamentally changed?

A Chinese startup has disrupted the AI landscape and sent shockwaves through markets. DeepSeek, a newly released large-language model (LLM), challenges the dominance of tech giants by boasting similar performance despite using less sophisticated chips and functioning at a fraction of the cost.

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How would tariffs impact Mexico and Canada?

Mexico and Canada took the spotlight this week after President Trump announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on its USMCA partners starting February 1st., as well as an investigation into unfair trade practices by China and others.

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What is the outlook for 4Q24 earnings season?

High hopes for the U.S. equity market this year are underpinned by expectations of robust corporate profits, and early indications of 4Q24 earnings have not disappointed.

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Will the Southern California wildfires impact the current economic expansion?

Natural disasters impose severe hardships on families and communities, and our thoughts are with those affected by the wildfires in Southern California.

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Are investors overlooking the long-term potential of healthcare stocks?

Over the past two years, healthcare stocks have experienced significant outflows and underperformance relative to the broader market, despite positive catalysts like innovation and weight-loss drugs.

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Was the yield curve inversion wrong in predicting a U.S. recession?

The spread between the 3-month U.S. Treasury bill yield and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, commonly referred to as the yield curve spread, is a vital indicator in financial markets and is closely monitored by investors and the Federal Reserve, particularly given the historical efficacy of its inversion predicting U.S. recessions.

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The year in review: what happened in 2024?

2024 was a busy year. Global economic growth diverged amidst elevated uncertainty; nearly half of the world's population went to the polls, igniting debates around policy; inflation eased across major economies, with policymakers seemingly successful in engineering a "soft landing"; and risk assets performed well, though the dispersion of returns across asset classes widened.

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Where is the U.S. dollar headed in 2025?

The U.S. dollar has continued to defy gravity, rising 7% in 2024 despite two Fed rate cuts. While the DXY Index peaked in September 2022, the U.S. real broad effective exchange rate (REER), which measures the dollar’s value relative to a broad basket of currencies adjusted for inflation differentials, remains near all-time highs.

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How should investors think about tariffs in 2025?

To conclude the year, tariffs have once again become a focal point, with Google searches for the term spiking in November and December.

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Why did the Federal Reserve deliver a hawkish cut?

At its final meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to reduce the Federal funds rate by 0.25% to a target range of 4.25%-4.50%, cutting rates by a 100 basis points (bps) or 300bps annualized in 2024.

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What is driving recent productivity growth, and can it last?

As Paul Krugman famously stated in 1990, “Productivity isn’t everything, but in the long run it is almost everything.” By boosting productivity, an economy can enhance its standard of living by producing more with the same or fewer resources. In essence, productivity is a key driver of economic prosperity.

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How is the AI building boom fueling opportunities in private energy infrastructure?

Today, investors are trying to understand the “series of tubes” that enable artificial intelligence. Behind every interaction with an AI tool is not only a complex web of digital neural networks, but also a humming physical network of data centers, electricity lines and power plants.

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How might policy changes impact alternative investments?

The alternative investment landscape often evolves gradually. Assets may be priced infrequently and therefore are less sensitive to day-to-day market moves.

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Does crypto deserve a place in portfolio construction?

Bitcoin has staged a remarkable rally this year, doubling in price to nearly $100,000. As of today, it is near an all-time high.

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Could regulatory shifts impact the dominance of Big Tech?

The dominance of Big Tech in digital services has enabled them to scale and grow in unprecedented ways, but has also raised concerns about their expanding power.

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When might the Fed end its quantitative tightening (QT) program?

Former Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Janet Yellen described the first episode of balance sheet drawdown from 2017-2019 to be “like watching paint dry”.

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Could higher tariffs reverse the Fed's easing course?

Today’s economic environment differs meaningfully from 2018—while the inflation heatwave is mostly past us, its embers are still alive.

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Who would be the biggest beneficiaries of a corporate tax cut?

In 2018, the U.S. corporate tax rate was slashed from 35% to 21% when the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) went into effect. On the campaign trail, President-elect Trump proposed a further reduction from 21% to 15%, specifying this would apply to companies that make their products in America.

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How does the Republican sweep impact the outlook for China and the rest of Asia?

With the U.S. election results settled, investors are now evaluating the economic policy implications. U.S. risk assets are buoyed by the ongoing soft landing and prospects of deregulation and lower corporate taxes.

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How will the Fed respond to fiscal policy in future rate decisions?

In its penultimate meeting of 2024, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously voted to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.50%-4.75%.

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A potential Republican sweep sends markets higher, but policy uncertainty looms

Former President Trump has been declared the winner of the U.S. Presidential election, securing the Electoral College and likely the popular vote. Republicans regained control of the Senate and are expected to gain control of the House as well.

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Why are yields moving higher?

Since the Fed’s jumbo 50 basis point rate cut in September, U.S. 2-year and 10-year Treasury yield have risen by 54bps and 59bps to 4.15% and 4.29%, respectively.

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How would the U.S. dollar respond to a Trade War 2.0?

With the U.S. elections just a week away and polls indicating a tight race, investors are closely assessing potential impacts for currency markets.

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With the economy so strong, why don’t Americans feel better?

If the U.S. economy were a pop star, it might be peak Taylor Swift. On nearly every major measure of economic health, the economy is in great shape and far ahead of its developed market peers.

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Why is housing supply still so low?

Housing inventories remain near record lows, yet builders are not increasing construction volumes enough to sufficiently meet demand. Why aren't builders ramping up activity?

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Have equity flows gone back to China after the stimulus announcement?

The combination of the stimulus announcement plus cheap valuations and underweight positions resulted in a surge in net flows into Chinese equities summing up to $12.7 billion from September 24th to October 14th.

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Where are consumers spending today?

The American consumer has been resilient in the face of significant headwinds, helping keep the U.S. economy afloat and increasing the likelihood of a "soft landing". However, while aggregate consumption has remained robust, the way the consumer is spending across categories has changed since the start of 2020.

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How might the U.S. election affect the clean energy transition?

Recent years have seen a significant acceleration in clean energy investment and grid decarbonization alongside the implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act passed in August 2022.

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The quarter in review: what happened in 3Q 2024?

After retracing 8.5% by early August, the S&P 500 had just about fully recovered by the end of the month, and subsequently powered to new highs after the Federal Reserve delivered a jumbo 50 basis point rate cut.

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Will China’s stimulus move the needle this time?

Chinese equities had a spectacular end to September, with the MSCI China up 21% from September 24th to 30th. The catalyst was the announcement of a series of economic stimulus measures focused on the housing market, domestic consumption, and the stock market.

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Will U.S. port worker strikes negatively impact the economic outlook?

Utilities have traditionally been known for their defensive properties, which makes the combination of robust economic growth, technological excitement and elevated bond yields an unlikely recipe for their outperformance.

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What is behind the rally in utility stocks?

Utilities have traditionally been known for their defensive properties, which makes the combination of robust economic growth, technological excitement and elevated bond yields an unlikely recipe for their outperformance.

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What’s the latest in emerging markets?

Emerging market equities sold off along with other markets in early August. However, they have since rebounded 8%, bringing YTD performance to 11%. While China lags due to ongoing economic challenges, recent developments have sparked a small recovery.

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Is the strong-dollar era over?

The relative strength and direction of the U.S. dollar matters: trade balances can fluctuate, multinational corporations can see foreign sales rise or fall and U.S. dollar-denominated investors in international markets can see returns amplified or diminished.

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What message did the Federal Reserve deliver with its 50bp rate cut?

In a highly anticipated decision, the FOMC voted to lower the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to a target range of 4.75%-5.00%, a larger-than-expected move and their first move lower since March 2020.

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Are companies moving production out of China?

The change is most evident in international trade data. China's share of U.S. imports peaked at 22% in 2018 during the U.S.-China trade conflicts and sits at 11.5% as of June 2024.

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How is inflation progressing ahead of the first rate cut?

The August CPI report showed further progress in inflation making its way down to 2%, setting the Fed up to begin normalizing monetary policy next week with a quarter point rate cut.

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What are the key policy implications in the 2024 presidential race?

In this piece, we compare the proposals of Vice-President Harris and former President Trump across taxes, trade and immigration, and the potential market implications of different election outcomes.

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What’s going on in alternative markets?

Elevated public market valuations, historically low bond yields and positive stock-bond correlation are all challenges facing the traditional 60/40 portfolio. Moving forward, investors may need to rely on alternative asset allocations to enhance return, income, and diversification in their portfolios.

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How should investors be positioned ahead of Fed rate cuts?

“The time has come” was a memorable phrase from Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium last week. After a few false dawns this year, Federal Reserve rate cuts are imminent, with the discussion now shifting to how quickly rates will come down.

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What do upcoming rate cuts mean for fixed income investing?

Interest rate expectations have changed wildly since the start of the year. While these expectations will continue to evolve as new data are released, one thing seems clear: the Federal Reserve will begin its rate cutting cycle this year, and it will cut by more in 2024 than it had previously telegraphed.

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Is more volatility expected from here?

Markets have largely rebounded from the volatility of the past two weeks. The S&P 500 has recovered 3.0% after a 4.8% decline, U.S. Growth equities have risen 4.3% following a 5.5% drop, and the VIX has settled at 20.7, after spiking to 55.1, its highest level since March 2020.

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What’s behind the volatility in Japanese markets?

Large moves were seen in Japanese markets, which dropped 6% on Friday (8/2) and another 12% on Monday (8/5), marking the worst daily sell-off since 1987.

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Will the Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates at its next meeting?

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to leave the Federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 5.25%-5.50%, but hinted rate cuts are on the horizon.

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Could the U.S. small cap rotation continue?

Mega-cap tech has enjoyed a long winning streak, but the stars recently began to align for the underdogs to take the lead.

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What are the potential implications of the U.S. Election for emerging markets?

With the U.S. election approaching, potential U.S. policy changes are a key concern for global investors. After most U.S. elections, the MSCI EM Index has had positive performance in the 100 days following.

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